What’s been most interesting about the Celtics this season is how distinct they feel inside the Brad Stevens era, in mostly frustrating ways. The commonalities are people, not style or aesthetic. An example: Their three-point rate is slightly what it was four years ago. Only three other teams can say the same thing, and two (the Rockets and Cavaliers) have completely melted down since. (The Ben Simmons-less Sixers are the other.)
The Celtics don’t aggregate their hyper-talented individual parts on offense and are without any identity—or eagerness to discover one—on defense. They’re below average on that end for the first time since Stevens was hired. As is the case whenever a team struggles, past decisions made by the front office that were no-brainers in real time have become sliding door moments argued over by unhappy fans.
But the team we’ll see from this point forward is shaped differently than the disappointing club that was constantly searching for a new rock bottom before the trade deadline. That doesn’t mean they’ll be better or worse, but identical isn’t an option here. (We’ve already seen a change in that three-point rate, where Boston ranked 20th before the All-Star break—with 37.2% of their shots coming behind the arc—and sixth since. They’re up to 44.2% in those 12 games.) The bench is less ambiguous, but new holes need to be filled by less experienced players, particularly at the five. As questions abound, here are a few that try to cover the most important themes seen so far and more importantly, everything that may still be to come.
Boston has a worse record than the Knicks and the Hornets. But even though they’re 28th in win differential (meaning their point differential indicates they should have 3.2 more wins than they do), they won’t be favored in the first round, let alone be expected to win multiple playoff series.
But if you’re of the mind that some of the predictive data we normally use to analyze the regular season is especially useless right now—marred by all that the pandemic has wrought on players, coaches, training staffs, referees, etc.—then maybe it’s okay to feel optimistic about a team that made last year’s conference finals, has a pair of All-Star two-way wings and a point guard whose offensive numbers are steadily trending in the right direction after a dispiriting start.
Morning Shootaround: Should the Dubs embrace the pick-and-roll?
For most teams, but especially Boston, any hope of developing/fortifying continuity has not been possible this season. Lineups have been different every night due to COVID-19 infections and the health and safety protocols implemented by the league to keep everyone as safe as possible (in a world where cancelling every game was never viewed as a serious option). Practices are an endangered species. Unavoidable injuries are even more damaging than they’d normally be thanks to the season’s compressed schedule.
So many of Boston’s worst defensive minutes saw big men Daniel Theis and Tristan Thompson on the floor together. Theis now plays for the Bulls and Thompson may either see limited playoff minutes or be out of the rotation entirely. Meanwhile, their four best players—Marcus Smart, Kemba Walker, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown—have only played 62 possessions with Robert Williams, and overall have been scorched behind the three-point line to a degree that’s unsustainable.
The Celtics have played more clutch games than any other team. They’ve also played the most games (24) with a point differential of three or fewer points with two minutes left and are 9–15 in them, shooting 3-for-22 from behind the three-point line in those final minutes. Not all of this is due to chance, but if a few more of those drop they’d be in the driver’s seat for home-court advantage.