The NCAA tournament selection committee gave its first glimpse at how the top 16 teams in the country stack up last weekend. Unsurprisingly, the SEC dominated, earning three of the four No. 1 seeds and five of the top six spots.
Still, there’s plenty of regular-season basketball to play and a pecking order to determine, even within the SEC’s ranks. While some of the one-seeds seem almost set in stone, at least one spot remains open for the taking. That’s what makes each weekly set of games so important, especially this week as a number of top-10 suitors will get the chance to prove their mettle against others vying for the final top spot.
Let’s get into the most consequential games of the upcoming week.
No. 14 Michigan State Spartans (21–5) at No. 12 Michigan Wolverines (20–5)
This is the biggest Big Ten game of the season thus far, so it’s only fitting that it stands alone Friday night. Since getting blown out at Purdue, Michigan has won six straight to seize control of its own destiny atop the conference, but none of those wins have come by more than four points. Still, seven-footers Vlad Goldin and Danny Wolf, who combined for 37 points and 21 rebounds (including nine offensive boards) continue to make their case for earning All-Big Ten first team honors by pulling out close games. The Spartans have steadied themselves since the head-scratching loss in East Lansing to Indiana by dominating Illinois in Champaign and Purdue back at home this past week. Tom Izzo’s latest stroke of genius is moving freshman NBA prospect Jase Richardson into the starting lineup, where he’s averaged 16.4 points per game across his last four starts. The winner of this game will have the upper hand in winning the Big Ten—even with a rematch looming in the regular-season finale.
No. 6 Tennessee Volunteers (21–5) at No. 7 Texas A&M Aggies (20–6)
The final No. 1 seed after Auburn, Duke and Florida seems wide open with a collection of SEC teams and Houston in position to stake their claims. Tennessee and Texas A&M will get the first shot to do so on Saturday, having perhaps the best opportunity to rise after Alabama’s loss to Missouri on Wednesday. The issue for the Aggies is a recent loss of their own, where their lackluster offense reared its ugly head. Texas A&M scored 54 points in a blowout loss on the road to Mississippi State, keeping the program one win shy of the eight Quad 1 wins that Tennessee and Alabama have on their respective résumés. Of course that could change with a win over Tennessee, but that would mean slowing down Zakai Zeigler, who’s averaged 19.25 points per contest since missing the win over Florida with a knee injury. These are the two best defenses in the SEC, so no matter what, expect a physical, low-scoring affair.
No. 8 Iowa State Cyclones (21–5) at No. 5 Houston Cougars and No. 5 Houston Cougars (22–4) at No. 9 Texas Tech Red Raiders (20–6)
Combining two Houston games into a single entry on this list emphasizes how high the reward is for the Cougars if they can rise to the occasion this week. Kelvin Sampson & Co. have mostly avoided the tougher games in the Big 12, apart from a close win at Kansas and a one-point overtime loss vs. Texas Tech. The Red Raiders didn’t have JT Toppin for the vast majority of that nail-biter after he was ejected early, so if he can factor in, Texas Tech could bounce back in a major way from its midweek loss at TCU. As for Iowa State, the Cyclones have climbed their way back into the mix with improved offense of late, averaging just under 80 points per game across their last four wins. If the last time Houston and Texas Tech played was any indication, both of these games should be competitive. Should the Cougars win both, they very likely could end up in the driver’s seat for the No. 1 seed.
No. 17 Kentucky Wildcats (18–8) at No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide (21–5)
Alabama got its wake-up call this past week, losing games to a pair of top-15 opponents in Auburn and Missouri. Not surprisingly, the losses came as a result of the Tide’s inability to defend, as the SEC’s worst defense (by far) allowed a combined 204 points in the two outings. Neither loss disqualifies Alabama by any stretch, but getting back on track against Kentucky, a similarly offense-inclined, defense-optional team, would position the Tide to compete in the final run of the season. No one has a more difficult schedule than Nate Oats’s team down the stretch with the final three games coming at Tennessee, vs. Florida and at Auburn. It’s feast or famine for the Tide: win those games and they’ll earn a No. 1 seed. Play defense like they have as of late and lose every one? Selection Sunday won’t be as pleasant.
UConn Huskies (18–8) at No. 10 St. John’s Red Storm (23–4)
Since these two teams played in Storrs at the start of the month, there’s been some bumps in the road. St. John’s lost at Villanova (yikes). UConn lost at seven-win Seton Hall (an even bigger yikes). This particular matchup is still appetizing though with the Huskies’ trio of Liam McNeeley, Solo Ball and Alex Karaban getting a second shot at the Red Storm’s dizzying defense. Big East jockeying aside, this game should come with a sideshow. Dan Hurley, always one to speak his mind or occasionally chirp at a fan sitting in the stands, will have to look the loyal St. John’s supporters in the face in Madison Square Garden. Of course the expansive UConn fan base will travel into downtown Manhattan as well, making for a raucous environment and a fitting precursor to March.
Bubble Games to Watch
With the focus on the NCAA tournament intensifying, it seems only right to highlight some of the best—and most consequential—bubble games for the rest of the regular season. Here’s a batch this upcoming week that you won’t want to miss, whether you’re an amateur bracketologist or just a fan of teams desperately scrapping for wins:
George Mason Patriots (21–5) at VCU Rams (21–5)
The Atlantic 10 is desperately trying to cling to two-bid status and the league’s two heavy hitters go toe-to-toe this weekend. George Mason has the inside track on the auto-bid without a loss since Jan. 4, but hasn’t played a team as good as VCU since nonconference play. The winner of this team may get a small boost in the at-large conversation without any other real chances to do so left.
No. 18 Clemson Tigers (21–5) at SMU Mustangs (20–6)
Plenty has been made this season about how the perennial basketball powerhouse ACC will only get three, maybe four bids to the NCAA tournament this season—and SMU is one of a few teams trying to earn that fourth spot. The primary issue for the Mustangs is an 0–4 record in Q1 games. Beating Clemson would earn them that elusive part of the equation before closing the regular season against four weaker conference foes.
Saint Mary’s Gaels (24–4) at Gonzaga Bulldogs (21–7)
Admittedly, this game isn’t squarely situated around any bubble team in particular, but any game between the Gaels and the Bulldogs is compelling. At the start of the month, the WCC rivals played and didn’t have a margin of more than five points separating them for the final 19 minutes of the second half before Saint Mary’s ultimately prevailed. Gonzaga, currently a nine-seed, is teetering a bit closer to the bubble than Mark Few would like, but a win Saturday would likely secure an at-large bid.
New Mexico Lobos (22–5) at San Diego State Aztecs (18–6)
San Diego State has done its best to play itself off the bubble in recent weeks by winning seven of their last eight. A victory over the top team in the Mountain West would make Selection Sunday a less stressful afternoon for the Aztecs. Both of these teams make their living on the defensive end, so this could become a rock fight.
Texas Longhorns (16–10) at Arkansas Razorbacks (15–11)
Both of these teams fit squarely on the bubble in ’s latest Bracket Watch. The issue is that neither can get on a steady run to make a compelling case for itself. Texas finally stopped a three-game skid with a win over Kentucky while Arkansas has come up short to the SEC’s best a few times recently. Neither team has a particularly tough close to the regular season so this game presents an opportunity to show a key win over a fellow bubble hopeful.